June 18, 2025 – As geopolitical uncertainties and economic headwinds continue to roil global markets, leading financial institutions Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and UBS have raised their gold price forecasts for 2025 and beyond, citing unprecedented central bank demand and safe-haven buying.
Gold, trading at approximately $3,386 per ounce as of today, is poised for significant gains, with projections ranging from $3,700 to $4,000 by mid-2026, driven by a confluence of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.
Goldman Sachs: $3,700 by Year-End, $4,000 by Mid-2026
Goldman Sachs has revised its 2025 gold price target to $3,700 per ounce, up from its previous forecast of $3,300, marking its third upward revision this year.
The bank attributes this bullish outlook to robust central bank purchases, which surged to 332.9 tons in Q4 2024—the third-largest expansion of gold reserves on record.
According to Goldman’s commodities research co-head, Daan Struyven, central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are diversifying away from U.S. dollar reserves following the 2022 freezing of Russian assets, which raised concerns about the reliability of U.S. Treasurys.
This structural shift in demand is expected to add 9% to gold prices by year-end, Struyven noted, projecting a potential high of $3,880 in a recession scenario.
Goldman Sachs also anticipates increased inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
If geopolitical tensions or U.S. policy uncertainty—such as new tariffs proposed by President Donald Trump—persist, speculative demand could push prices to $4,000 by June 2026.
Bank of America: $4,000 Within 12 Months
Bank of America has taken an equally optimistic stance, forecasting gold to reach $4,000 per ounce within the next 12 months, a 17% increase from current levels.
This target aligns with Reuters’ reporting, which highlights escalating fears of a broader Middle East conflict as a key driver.
Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, emphasized that “geopolitical scares,” such as Israel’s military actions against Iranian targets, are fueling safe-haven demand.
Bank of America also points to strong consumer demand from markets like China and India, where cultural affinity for gold and economic uncertainty are boosting purchases.
UBS Joins the Bullish Chorus
Swiss bank UBS has raised its 2025 gold price target to $3,500 per ounce, up from $3,200, citing “escalating tariff uncertainty, weaker growth, higher inflation, and lingering geopolitical risks.”
UBS strategist Joni Teves noted that supply constraints and robust demand from institutional investors, central banks, and retail buyers are creating a perfect storm for gold’s rally.
The bank expects gold to maintain its upward trajectory, potentially reaching $3,720 by late 2025 under optimistic scenarios.
Why Gold Is Surging
Gold’s meteoric rise—up 30% year-to-date and trading just below its April 2025 peak of $3,500—reflects a complex interplay of global dynamics.
Key factors include:
- Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, coupled with trade frictions stemming from U.S. tariff policies, have heightened gold’s appeal as a “stateless currency.” Analysts note that the geopolitical risk index reached 158 in Q1 2025, well above the historical average of 100, underscoring the metal’s role as a hedge against instability.
- Central Bank Buying: Central banks, particularly in China, India, and Turkey, have been aggressive buyers, with global holdings reaching 36,200 tons by the end of 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund. This trend is expected to continue as nations seek to diversify away from the U.S. dollar.
- Economic Uncertainty: The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey reported a drop to -26 in April, signaling economic weakness. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s warnings of slower growth and higher inflation due to Trump’s tariff policies have further driven investors to gold.
- Monetary Policy: Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, boosting ETF inflows. U.S. and Chinese gold ETF holdings rose by 9.5% and 70%, respectively, in 2024.
Expert Insights and Market Sentiment
George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, emphasized gold’s role in portfolio diversification, stating that uncertainty gives gold more upside potential than downside risk.
Similarly, J.P. Morgan Research projects gold averaging $3,675 per ounce by Q4 2025, with a long-term target of $4,000 by mid-2026, driven by sustained central bank demand and investor appetite.
Posts on X reflect similar optimism, with users like @GoldSilver_com noting gold’s 3.4% weekly gain and Goldman Sachs’ $4,000 target for mid-2026.
Others, such as @Sorenthek, highlight Goldman’s view that a recession could push prices to $3,880 by year-end.
Analysts recommend allocating 5–15% of portfolios to gold as a hedge against inflation and volatility, though returns are not guaranteed.
Regular investing can mitigate short-term price fluctuations, ensuring exposure to gold’s long-term upward trend.
Jean-François Faure, CEO of VeraCash, noted that this mad rise is only just beginning, pointing to gold’s reestablished role as a safe-haven asset.
With central banks, investors, and markets aligning on gold’s bullish outlook, the precious metal is set to shine brighter in 2025, potentially reaching new record highs as global uncertainties persist.
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