An AMC short squeeze potential has been a huge debate for retail investors and shareholders amongst the Reddit and social media communities.
Exactly how high an AMC short squeeze could possibly go up to has plagued AMC shareholders since the very first publication of the short interest data (archived data).
AMC Entertainment stock was trading around $14 when I began to share the short interest data after shooting up to $22 per share during its first big push from $2.50.
The stock fell back down to $5 per share but the short interest told a story, which is why I continued to share it, because retail investors had a shot at something big here.
Four months after my publications, AMC reached its all-time high of $72 per share.
I knew investors that were up thousands of dollars, and others that were up hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Another community member posted his brand-new Polestar.
You can actually go and see their comments on my Instagram highlights under ‘Gains‘.
But what’s more interesting is that AMC never shot up to its potential, did it?
In this article, I’m going to go over AMC short squeeze price predictions along with some TA on key levels the movie theatre chain stock will have to break in order to truly reach its potential.
Let’s get started.
AMC Stock Price Today
Today, AMC stock is trading around $5 per share, respectively.
Shares rose to $8 in December before rejecting and coming back down to roughly $6 and eventually to current share price levels.
2022’s bear market dragged many companies down, and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. was no exception.
And with talks of a recession creeping in this year, it’s difficult to determine whether prices will stagnate or bounce back soon.
While a short squeeze does not discriminate whether we’re in a bear market or bull market, it’s heavy buying pressure that will ultimately trigger it.
And while AMC’s trading volume hasn’t been anywhere near 2021’s levels, it doesn’t mean it can’t be later this year.
Related: 5 Big Signs Pointing to An AMC Short Squeeze
How High is An AMC Short Squeeze Predicted to Go?
There are many AMC short squeeze price predictions from the retail community.
One of the biggest price predictions being $1,000.
In the past year, some would have laughed at you for your lesser capability to see beyond.
More ambitious short squeeze predictions say AMC can reach upwards of $1,000-$10,000 per share!
Then of course, you have the strong big D energy ‘apes’ that say an AMC MOASS (mother of all short squeezes) will yield $100,000-$500,000 per share. Though, this is just Reddit talk of course.
All fascinating without a doubt.
You might ask, what in the world led retail investors to believe such impossible numbers could be possible to begin with?
The truth is, while hypothetical, these numbers (technically speaking) may be possible.
See, what happened was that wrinkled brain apes from the Reddit community began to experiment with a series of predictions based on the number of naked shares circulating outside the original (and legal) float.
Redditors began to create brackets of equations to identify what (potential) share prices could look like if hedge funds (hypothetically) closed billions upon billions of ‘synthetic shares’.
What did we find?
Denial. Over and over again.
Mainstream media and Wall Street bullied the retail community into a corner and said naked shorting no longer existed.
Retail investors were called conspiracy theorists.
Naked shorting later proved to be the highest probable outcome for an incredible amount of FTDs (fails-to-deliver) in AMC.
CNBC’s Melissa Lee and FOX Business’s Charles Payne eventually began to touch topic on the matter after Trey’s Trades addressed retail’s concerns on interviews.
Naked shorting was now officially being discussed on live television.
Related: Latest Report Shows AMC FTDs Spiked to $31 Million
But Wall Street kept pressing, denying the existence of dark pools, exchanges used to essentially suppress the price of security or to refrain from the full demand of a stock to reflect its actual share price.
In February of 2022, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said in an exclusive Bloomberg interview that 90%-95% of retail orders are not processed through the lit exchange but rather through dark pools.
In an interview later in December, the Chairman told ‘We The Investors‘ that he understands retail’s frustrations.
The SEC Chairman was asked if dark pools suppressed the price of stock and whether retail investors could influence the price of a stock if majority of orders traded in the lit exchange.
While there was no direct answer to the suppression of price, the Chairman says that with so much trading happening off-exchange, he doesn’t think it’s a leveled playing field as dark pools give institutions an unfair advantage.
So far, there has been no ‘official confirmation‘ of ‘synthetic shares’ to back up the highest AMC short squeeze predictions.
There’s only been denial.
What’s an AMC Short Squeeze Potential Factoring Out Synthetics?
I’ve shared this equation in the past and the prediction is not accounting for synthetics.
When AMC surged to $72 per share, its short interest had dropped from 22% to 14%, an 8% difference.
Now, while there is no sure way to identify how large positions are per percentage drops, we can gain a little more clarity by analyzing these proven numbers.
Is it probable that if AMC’s short interest had dropped another 8% from 14% down to 6%, the stock would have surged twice its all-time high of $72 per share to $144 per share?
Sure – although not 100% certain, we can begin to see a clearer picture here.
Could we then predict an AMC short squeeze potential to peak between $100-$200 as a rough estimate?
Absolutely.
At these numbers, every shareholder (even late buyers) will be in profit.
Having reached $72 per share, it’s fair to say $100-$200 per share is a fair short squeeze potential when you exclude the existence of synthetics.
Some may agree, others will certainly differ.
But if there’s a hard lesson I’ve learned as an options trader, it’s been to never get too greedy when you’re already in profit.
Are Shareholders Still Holding AMC?
There’s been some controversy recently within the community surrounding the CEO.
There are shareholders who criticize Adam Aron for cashing in more than $40 million between late 2021 and early 2022 while shareholders held in order to prevent shares from sliding.
Others are happy to hear the CEO has no interest in selling shares any time soon and has rejected a pay raise for the new year.
Despite the controversy, majority of shareholders continue to hold their stock.
So far, more than 90% of shareholders say they continue to hold their AMC shares in 2023.
I will update the numbers as more investors continue to participate.
Still, some argue that those who voted ‘no’ may have never been shareholders in the first place.
Nasdaq reports that AMC’s Preferred Equity (APE) has only 0.18% institutional ownership.
This means retail investors are the sole owners of AMC’s equity too.
So, the sentiment lines up.
Related: How to Buy AMC Stock (2023 Guide)
What is Your Top AMC Stock Price Prediction?
Your AMC price prediction might differ from someone else’s in the retail community.
Leave a comment down below what an AMC short squeeze potential looks like to you.
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What I don’t get is Gensler stating dark pools is good for institutions and that over 90% of retail orders are sent to dark pools – why doesn’t the SEC stop that from happening? Surely that one small thing would go a long way to gensler and the SEC getting back some credibility 🤷🏻♀️
“Gamestop reach a pre-market value of over US$500 per share…” You can’t see it on the graph, but that was before the 4:1 stock split. I’m sure AMC can reach the same level or higher, if it’s already been done before.
I think 250 to 500 is a probable number if it squeezes before reverse split. 14k shares here. But same squeeze numbers as GME
🔥🔥🔥
Personally, $200 per share won’t be any good after the 10-1 reverse split.
What
I’m curious to know are you voting yes or no and why?
I must have missed one of the most important points, what happens to stock price in a squeeze if there are billions of synthetics? And, what about this notion that after conversion, the reverse split will wipe out most synthetics?
Unless I missed it, I would like to know the answer to Erik’s question!
Hopefully someone can answer, if there is talks about turning APE into AMC shares (of course depending on the vote), wouldn’t it be better to buy Ape since it’s at a lower price and will eventually turn into AMC?
Do you vote Yes or No?
Let’s start a discussion! Leave your thoughts below.
Just give a straight answer(s). How does the R/S effect (1) the existing short positions (2) the synthetics?