XRP, the native token of the Ripple network, stands at a critical juncture in May 2025, trading between $2.30 and $2.40, currently $2.12 at the time of this writing.
As a cryptocurrency designed for cross-border payments, XRP has garnered significant attention due to recent regulatory wins, institutional interest, and volatile price action.
With the market buzzing about its potential to reclaim 2018 highs near $3 or risk a steep decline to $1, investors are closely watching XRP’s next move.
Today we are going over the factors driving XRP’s price, technical indicators, and what lies ahead for this embattled altcoin.
Will XRP continue to push upwards, defying critics and the suppression from regulators?
Or will XRP see further correction, allowing new traders to load up at a discount?
Here’s the latest in XRP.
Regulatory Wins Fuel XRP’s Bullish Momentum
Ripple’s SEC Victory and Market Impact
In March 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dropped its appeal against a ruling that declared XRP not a security when sold to retail investors on public exchanges.
This landmark victory propelled XRP to briefly overtake Tether (USDT), securing its position as the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, currently valued at over $125 billion.
The introduction of XRP futures trading on the CME exchange and speculation about spot-based XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by year-end have further fueled optimism.
Analysts like Farina suggest XRP could hit $10 in 2025 if altcoin season gains traction and Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) declines, driving capital into altcoins.
Crypto influencer Lark Davis has shared this sentiment too.
Institutional Adoption and Ripple’s ODL Product
Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) product, which uses XRP for instant cross-border settlements, continues to attract fintechs and smaller financial institutions.
With transaction fees as low as 0.00001 XRP, ODL offers a cost-effective alternative to traditional payment systems.
However, competition from stablecoins and limited adoption by major banks, which prefer RippleNet over XRP, temper its growth.
Ripple’s acquisition of Hidden Road and the first XRP futures block trade signal growing institutional interest, potentially stabilizing XRP’s price.
The growing adoption of cryptocurrencies tend to make these altcoins a long-term hold.
But where is XRP headed in the short-term?
Will XRP go up or go down soon?
Technical Analysis: XRP’s Critical Price Levels
Descending Triangle and Key Support Zones
XRP’s price is currently trapped in a descending triangle, squeezed between the 26-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs).
Technical analysis highlights critical support at $2.25-$2.07.
A failure to hold these levels could trigger a capitulation event, potentially driving XRP toward $1. Conversely, a breakout above the 50 EMA could push XRP toward $3, aligning with Fibonacci extension projections.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50 indicates neutral momentum, suggesting a significant directional move is imminent.
Still, the on-chain data says more.
On-Chain Data Raises Red Flags
On-chain metrics reveal challenges for XRP.
The XRP Ledger’s transaction volume has plummeted a whopping 90% from its recent peak, with daily transactions dropping from over 400 million XRP to 177 million by May 29, 2025.
A 75% drop in on-chain volume further signals waning network usage, raising concerns about whether speculative trading, rather than adoption, is driving price action.
These metrics contrast with XRP’s strong fundamentals, creating deep uncertainty for traders.
How about community sentiment?
Community Sentiment and Market Risks
X Platform Buzz: Bullish or Bearish?
Sentiment on X reflects a polarized XRP community.
Some users, citing whale accumulation and regulatory clarity, predict XRP could soar to $250 by 2026, driven by real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and macro tailwinds.
Others warn of a bearish wedge breakdown, with a potential drop below $2.07 triggering a “death spiral” toward $1.
Broader market factors, such as U.S.-China trade negotiations and crypto market volatility, could exacerbate price swings.
Still, community sentiment continues to remain bullish on CoinMarketCap with 88% of users voting they feel bullish about XRP compared to the 12% who feel bearish.
Risks and Opportunities for Investors
XRP’s long-term bullish bias, supported by regulatory progress and potential ETF approval, contrasts with short-term technical weaknesses.
Traders should monitor key levels—$2.50 for a potential breakout and $2.07 for a breakdown.
While XRP’s role in global finance remains promising, its immediate trajectory depends on sustaining momentum and overcoming declining network activity.
XRP’s path in 2025 hinges on breaking through technical resistance or holding critical support.
With regulatory clarity and institutional interest as tailwinds, XRP could rally toward $3 or beyond.
However, declining on-chain activity and competitive pressures pose risks of a drop to $1.
Investors must weigh these factors carefully, keeping an eye on market trends and technical indicators to navigate XRP’s volatile landscape.
But I’m curious to know what you think — leave your thoughts below.
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Also on CoinMarketCap & CoinPedia.
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