As the first cryptocurrency to appear on the market, Bitcoin has a special reputation among both traders and researchers.
The former group seeks to integrate the asset into their own portfolios, while the latter continuously analyzes the ways in which Bitcoin’s movements and price fluctuations impact the broader marketplace.
When investors want to diversify their portfolios and ensure their holdings are robust enough to withstand the changes occurring in the market, they’re always looking for products that are more secure and come with a lower degree of risk, such as Bitcoin or BTC futures.
Right now, the Bitcoin market is exhibiting very strong performance, a characteristic that is changing the ways in which the coin itself behaves, as well as the choices investors are making.
Since many of these choices have the potential to impact what’s going on in the larger marketplace, it is essential to be aware of these changes as well as the manner in which they should be approached to ensure the most significant number of returns.
Scarcity and accumulation
Currently, the Bitcoin circulating supply is approximately 20% higher than the total issuance, indicating that long-term investors focused on holding their assets are convinced that their strategy is the best.
The daily decreases are less than 3%, and data shows that the share could climb to 20% by 2028 and 25% by 2034, which will cause a tightening of the available supply.
The ancient supply refers to the coins that haven’t been moved in at least a decade and which are growing at an increasingly faster pace the more coins are mined.
According to recent data, this trend began in April 2024 and represented one of the most significant shifts in the history of BTC supply dynamics.
About 566 ancient Bitcoins enter the supply on a daily basis, significantly more than the 450 coins that are issued every day.
The data shows that the long-term holders are increasingly influencing the market’s behavior, particularly as institutional activity starts picking up speed in the aftermath of the 2024 halving.
The total ancient supply currently amounts to more than 3.4 million coins at the moment, valued at almost $400 billion.
The category has been increasing in size for more than twelve months, with the decreases being too small to be substantial.
Compare that with the supply of five-year holders, which shows many more fluctuations, with decline rates being around 13%.
The capital of institutional investors is rising as well, with inflows predicted to reach $120 billion by the end of the year and a whopping $300 billion by December 2026.
The market participants are incredibly diverse, including states that are reallocating 5% of gold reserves, the wealth management platforms that are assigning 0.5%, public enterprises doubling holdings, and the US adopting at 30%.
In the case of a bull run, the inflows have the potential to exceed $426 billion, absorbing approximately 19% of BTC’s supply, or 4 million coins, making liquidity much tighter.
If the institutional accumulation rate remains the same while the ancient supply keeps on growing, the more likely scenario is the one that involves a considerable portion of BTC’s supply becoming illiquid, potentially amplifying the price targets as a result of growing demand.
Macro factors
In the aftermath of the 2024 US presidential election, the crypto ecosystem has changed significantly.
The main reason for that is the fact that the current administration is known for being much more crypto-friendly than the one preceding it, leading investors to feel more hopeful about their prospects.
Over the last few years, crypto users have been asking for clearer regulation frameworks for crypto, as well as specific legislation that considers crypto’s unique characteristics first and foremost.
It seems that the community is closer than ever to making that a reality now.
The ancient supply has notably been growing at a faster rate since the elections, by about 10%.
While it may not sound like a lot, it’s important to remember that the figure is roughly four times higher than the historical average.
The coins that had been held for at least five years declined on 40% of the post-election days, which is three times the typical rate.
The movements might have contributed to weaker price action in early 2025 as a whole, but given the relatively robust performance that can be observed at the moment, it is clear that the trend was never meant to be longstanding.
As of 2025, fewer than thirty public companies hold more than 800,000 BTC combined, as estimations show that the ancient supply can make up 20% of the total circulating supply by 2028.
If companies end up having crypto reserves of at least 1,000 Bitcoin each, the impact will be even greater.
It is also not surprising in the least that the marketplace is overall moving towards long-term holding, as this has been the trend since 2022 when the bear market and crypto winter wreaked havoc on the ecosystem.
The uncertainty and the fact that gains could be negated so quickly caused investors to become more cautious and feel less inclined to take on risks.
Holding on to assets over a long time and allowing their value to appreciate over the years is one of the strategies that come with much lower degrees of risk and is, therefore, attractive to those who are looking to build their portfolios.
$1 Million
Now that Bitcoin’s price is doing so well, investors have begun discussing its likelihood of reaching $1 million per coin, a staggering price that would break all previous records.
There’s no denying the fact that achieving that level will take some time and can’t happen overnight, but analysts still love to speculate.
The value would require a market capitalization level of $21 trillion, a tenfold increase from the current price.
Since Bitcoin’s illiquidity continues to grow and it remains an asset with a fixed supply, the $1 million milestone may not be so unrealistic.
If you’re an investor and want to make the most of what the BTC market has to offer, make sure to do your research and keep up with the latest market developments.
It is the only way to make good choices that increase your odds of success.
Back to Homepage | Daily Crypto News.
Follow Frank Nez on X and Facebook for more community insights.
Also on CoinMarketCap & CoinPedia.
About The Author
