July 31, 2025 — In the wake of President Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory, bolstered by a historic surge in Latino voter support, recent data indicates a significant erosion of his approval among this critical demographic.
Polls conducted in 2025 reveal growing unease among Latino voters, driven by dissatisfaction with the economy and the administration’s hardline immigration policies.
This shift could reshape the political landscape as the 2026 midterms approach, posing challenges for Republicans who relied on Latino gains to secure the presidency.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll from April 2025 shows Trump’s approval rating among Hispanic voters dropping to 34%, a 3-point decline from earlier in the year, with disapproval rising to 61%.
This marks a stark contrast to his 46% share of the Hispanic vote in November 2024, the strongest Republican performance since the 1970s, according to exit polls from Edison Research.
The decline is attributed to persistent economic challenges and controversial immigration measures, including aggressive deportation policies that have raised concerns among Latino communities.
Economic discontent is a key driver.
Latino voters, who skew working-class and younger than the broader electorate, have been hit hard by rising costs for essentials like groceries and housing.
A Global Strategy Group poll conducted for Somos Votantes between May 8 and May 18, 2025, found that 56% of Latino registered voters believe the economy is worsening under Trump, with only 19% seeing improvement.
Among Latino independents, Trump’s economic approval plummeted from 43% in February to 26% in May, highlighting a rapid loss of trust in his economic promises, which were central to his 2024 campaign.
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Aggressive Immigration Creates Political Fallout
Immigration policy is another flashpoint.
While Trump’s campaign focused on deporting “bad actors,” many Latino voters now express discomfort with the broader scope of his administration’s actions.
A New York Times focus group of 11 Latino Trump voters, published July 29, 2025, revealed frustration with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations targeting workplaces like construction sites.
One voter, Jose from Indiana, remarked, “These are people that are working, helping the economy,” not criminals.
Polls reflect this sentiment: a Reuters/Ipsos survey showed only 42% of Hispanic voters support increased deportations, compared to 63% of white respondents.
The Latino electorate, comprising roughly 15% of U.S. voters and growing, is diverse, spanning Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, and Venezuelan backgrounds.
Trump’s 2024 gains were particularly strong among Hispanic men (50% support) and in regions like Florida and Texas’ border counties.
However, Pew Research Center’s June 2025 analysis confirms Trump won 48% of the Latino vote, nearly matching Vice President Kamala Harris’s 51%, a dramatic shift from Biden’s 25-point advantage in 2020.
Yet, early 2025 polls suggest this support is fragile, with tariffs and deportations impacting U.S.-born Latinos and raising fears of economic fallout.
Analysts point to a broader trend: Latino voters are increasingly skeptical of both parties.
Clarissa Martinez de Castro of UnidosUS noted that economic discontent and dissatisfaction with immigration policies are “alarm bells” for Republicans, who now “own the economy” in voters’ eyes.
Meanwhile, Democrats face their own challenges, as many Latinos feel the party has failed to address affordability and inflation effectively.
As Trump’s policies unfold, their impact on Latino communities—particularly working-class voters reliant on programs like Medicare and the Affordable Care Act—could further erode support.
With 9 million Latinos insured through the ACA and 6.5 million using Medicare, proposed cuts to these programs risk alienating a bloc that proved pivotal in 2024.
The 2026 midterms will test whether Republicans can retain their Latino gains or if Democrats can capitalize on this growing discontent.
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