President Donald Trump announced on Thursday via Truth Social that he has directed the Department of Commerce to initiate a new U.S. census excluding undocumented immigrants from the population count, a move that would fundamentally alter a 235-year practice of counting all residents regardless of legal status.
The directive, which Trump claims will produce a “new and highly accurate CENSUS based on modern day facts and figures” and incorporate data from the 2024 presidential election, has ignited a firestorm of legal and political controversy.
The U.S. Census, mandated by Article I, Section 2 of the Constitution, requires an enumeration every ten years of the “whole number of persons in each state.”
Historically, this has included all residents—citizens and non-citizens alike, regardless of immigration status.
Trump’s order to exclude an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants, as reported by the Department of Homeland Security in 2022, represents a significant departure from this precedent.
Legal experts have swiftly condemned the move as unconstitutional.
Kareem Crayton, vice president of the Brennan Center for Justice’s Washington office, stated, “This flies in the face of Article I and its textual commitment that all persons in the United States be counted for the purpose of the census.”
The 14th Amendment further reinforces this requirement, explicitly calling for the counting of all persons for congressional apportionment.
Critics argue that excluding undocumented immigrants could distort political representation and reduce federal funding for states with large immigrant populations, such as California, Texas, Florida, and New York.
Political Motivations and Redistricting Battles
Trump’s announcement coincides with efforts by Republican-led states to redraw congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterms, potentially leveraging a new census to bolster GOP representation.
A 2020 Pew Research Center analysis found that excluding undocumented immigrants from the census could result in California, Texas, and Florida each losing one congressional seat, while states like Alabama, Minnesota, and Ohio might retain seats they would otherwise lose.
This shift could also impact Electoral College votes, which are tied to congressional apportionment.
Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) has championed the initiative, introducing a bill last month that calls for a citizens-only census and mid-decade redistricting.
On X, Greene celebrated Trump’s directive, writing, “President Trump supports my bill Making American Elections Great Again Act which not only orders a new census counting American citizens only, it also orders reapportionment by the new U.S. citizen count, and requires proof of citizenship to vote!!!”
Republican figures like Congressman Mark Harris have echoed this sentiment, arguing on X that counting undocumented immigrants “disenfranchises Americans and rewards blue states for breaking the law.”
Legal and Logistical Hurdles
Trump’s push is not without precedent.
During his first term, he attempted to add a citizenship question to the 2020 Census and issued a memorandum to exclude undocumented immigrants from apportionment counts.
Both efforts were struck down by federal courts, with the Supreme Court blocking the citizenship question in 2019 on procedural grounds and a three-judge panel in 2020 ruling that excluding noncitizens violated federal law.
The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), which successfully challenged the 2019 effort, has signaled readiness to sue again.
Adriel I. Cepeda Derieux, deputy director of the ACLU’s voting rights project, stated, “Any attempt to threaten these communities in the way the first administration did … we would be ready to meet them in court.”
Logistically, conducting a new census before the scheduled 2030 count poses significant challenges.
The Census Bureau, part of the Commerce Department, began planning for 2030 in 2019, and preparations typically span a decade.
A mid-decade census would require substantial resources and could disrupt ongoing efforts, including the 2026 Census Test planned for six areas in the South and West.
Furthermore, federal law mandates that census questions be submitted to Congress two years prior to a count, complicating Trump’s timeline, as his term ends in 2029.
The directive is part of a broader Trump administration agenda targeting undocumented immigrants.
Recent policies include plans for deporting 1 million immigrants annually and reinstating courthouse arrests by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
These actions have raised concerns among advocates, who warn that a citizens-only census could deter participation among legal immigrants, exacerbating undercounts in communities already considered “hard to count” by the Census Bureau.
A 2023 bureau report noted significant undercounting of noncitizens in the 2020 Census, which could worsen with increased fear of government engagement.
States with large immigrant populations stand to lose not only political representation but also billions in federal funding for schools, hospitals, and infrastructure, which is allocated based on census data.
Critics, including Congressman Jerrold Nadler (D-NY), have called the move unconstitutional, emphasizing that it undermines the Census Bureau’s role in providing accurate demographic data for governance and resource allocation.
Supporters and Critics Weigh In
Supporters of Trump’s directive argue it addresses a perceived unfairness in counting noncitizens for apportionment, which they claim inflates the political power of states with large undocumented populations.
Charlie Kirk, a prominent conservative activist, has previously argued that California gains “an extra 9 electoral votes because of counting illegals,” though this claim lacks empirical support.
Conversely, opponents highlight the census’s role in ensuring equitable representation and funding, warning that Trump’s plan could deepen distrust in government institutions among immigrant communities.
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