Tag: Recession (Page 1 of 2)

Market Strategist Suggests 2023 May Be the Year to Buy

February 8, 2023 / Frank Nez

Stock Market News Today: Market Strategist David Rosenberg on stock market outlook.

Market strategist David Rosenberg suggests 2023 may be the year to buy stocks, after the market has dropped another 30% per his prediction.

The former chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch says “the recession’s just starting”, stating the S&P 500 may bottom out around 2900, to which at that point stocks will look attractive again.

Rosenberg is forecasting a bullish market in 2024, which suggests 2023 will be the year to buy and bulk up to build stronger portfolios.

While investors may try to time the bottom, even Rosenberg’s prediction is just that, a prediction.

The market may still drop as the fed continues to regulate and assess interest rate hikes, but how low the market may drop is still uncertain.

Short sellers lost more than $81 billion in only the first month of the new year due to 2023’s rallies.

The SPY is up more than +7% this year-to-date with many popular stocks having much larger gains this first quarter.

AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (NYSE:AMC) +76.46%
AMC Preferred Equity (NYSE:APE) +165%
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) +79.54%
GameStop (NYSE:GME) +38%
Disney (NYSE:DIS) +23.30%

So, although the start to this year has been rather bullish, Market Strategist David Rosenberg says he doesn’t believe the bottom is in yet.

Is Wall Street out of touch?

Rosenberg says investor sentiment is out of line.

“There is a disconnect between how investors feel about the outlook and how they’re actually positioned.

They feel bearish but they’re still positioned bullishly, and that is a classic case of cognitive dissonance.

We also have a situation where there is a lot of talk about recession and about how this is the most widely expected recession of all time, and yet the analyst community is still expecting corporate earnings growth to be positive in 2023.”

Goldman Sachs says bigger short squeezes are coming since the meme stock frenzy in 2021.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) is reporting hedge funds betting against stocks globally abandoned those short positions last week at the fastest pace since 2015, surpassing the speed of exits during the ‘meme stock’ frenzy in 2021.

According to the Goldman note, the speed at which hedge funds exited bearish positions surpassed that seen in January 2021 when retail traders managed to squeeze short sellers out of stocks such as videogame retailer Gamestop (NYSE:GME) and movie theatre operator AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC).

During the ‘meme stock’ frenzy in 2021, GameStop shares rose to nearly $500 per share, or +1,500% that year.

AMC shares rose from $2 early that year to an all-time high of $72 per share, more than +3,000%.

Today, both AMC and GameStop remain heavily shorted with AMC Entertainment having a higher-than-ever cost to borrow fee.

Is the stock market crash over?

While the stock market has performed relatively well going into 2023, Market Strategist David Rosenberg believes the S&P 500 has not bottomed out yet.

Rosenberg predicts 2024 will be a bullish year for the market which suggests buying the 2023 dip could prove to yield gains next year.

Stocks fell all throughout 2022 but have begun to bounce back in 2023; will 2023 see gains and consolidation?

I’m curious to hear your thoughts on this.

Feel welcome to leave a comment down below.

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Market News Today - Market Strategist suggests 2023 may be the year to buy stocks. — Market News Today – Market Strategist suggests 2023 may be the year to buy stocks.

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Where Is the Stock Market Headed in 2023?

January 2, 2023 / Frank Nez

Where is the stock market headed in 2023? For many of us, the bear market of 2022 was the first bear market we’ve ever experienced.

I’ve been invested in the stock market since 2019, but many of my readers began investing in 2021.

In 2021, many experienced their first bull market, and it was incredible.

So, what can we expect from the market in 2023?

Let’s look at the S&P 500 index and see what experts are saying.

SPY Stock at A Glance: Will Stocks Keep Going Down?

SPY stock (S&P 500) is currently trading in a channel where we may still see the market retest $400.

Breaking below this channel allows us to identify a strong probability of SPY dropping as low as $322.

See the figure below.

This drop in share price means the stock market will plunge to retest its macro channel.

If price breaks below this channel, the U.S economy may experience a much larger market crash.

A bounce on the trendline may momentarily move the market back up until it retests its highest level on that channel.

A break above this channel could eventually bring the stock market up later in the year.

But why not in the beginning of 2023?

Bank of America and Wells Fargo CEOs are expecting a recession to hit the United States during the first quarter of the new year and subside sometime in the last quarter.

Elon Musk recently sold 22 million shares of the company cashing in approximately $3.6 billion earlier in December, stating that he’s preparing for a ‘serious’ recession.

A recession would likely trigger further selloffs causing the market to crash.

But what are other experts saying?

What Are Experts Saying About the Stock Market?

While technical analysis shows us the stock market is in a downtrend channel, experts are saying a recession will have a great impact on the continuation of a bear market in 2023.

Dan Raju, CEO of Tradier, a brokerage platform says, “The Fed’s obsession with recession will likely result in more interest rate hikes in the first quarter of 2023, which means that we are going to have continued volatility in the financial markets.”

“Two-in-three economists are forecasting a recession in 2023, yet corporate earnings estimates haven’t come down to reflect that,” says Greg McBride, CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.

“If the economy continues to slow and quarterly earnings calls in January reveal a dour outlook for the year, corporate earnings estimates will be marked down and the market could have a renewed tumble.”

“We feel that going into the fall, the stage will be set for a strong recovery from the 2022-2023 cyclical bear market,” says David Keller, president and chief strategist at Sierra Alpha Research.

“If and when a market bottom emerges in the first half of 2023, we’d be looking to technology as a fantastic long-term opportunity, given the heavy drawdowns since late 2021.”

How Can Retail Investors Navigate These Waters?

The markets aren’t coming down forever, in fact analysts are predicting a recovery sometime in the 3rd quarter of 2023.

Retail investors may always take advantage of these market lows by adding to their portfolios before we begin to see the stock market take off again.

It’s important to remember that bear markets usually last about 9.6 months on average where bull markets tend to last around 2.7 years.

So, while this bear market might drag on a bit longer, it merely gives investors opportunity to buy low.

What are some stocks you plan on buying in 2023?

What are some of your favorite stock picks for the new year?

Bank of America Expects a Recession by Q1 of 2023

December 9, 2022 / Frank Nez

Market News: Bank of America and Wells Fargo CEO expect a recession in 2023.

Bank of America is expecting a recession to hit the U.S by the first quarter of 2023.

There is a major slowdown happening says CEO Brian Moynihan.

Economists are now expecting a volatile market to persist in 2023.

A recession may be coming in the first quarter of 2023, according to forecasts by Bank of America (BofA) economists.

“A recession is very likely in the U.S.,” BoFa wrote in its Year Ahead 2023 report. The bank points out that this recession can last through the third quarter of 2023.

There’s no official definition of a recession, but many economists define it as a period of two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth or gross domestic product (GDP) decline – a drop that’s already been seen in 2022, says FOX Business.

But many Americans already believe the U.S. is already in a recession.

More than half or 56% of Americans believe the country is in a recession, according to a recent poll by YouGovAmerica and The Economist.

Here’s the latest market news.

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Major Slowdown in Economy Points Towards a Recession

Recession News: Bank of America expects a recession in 2023.

While retail payments surged 11% so far this year to nearly $4 trillion, that increase obscures a slowdown that began in recent weeks: November spending rose just 5%, Bank of America’s CEO Brian Moynihan said.

Even Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf is saying, “there is a slowdown happening, there is no question about it. We are expecting a fairly weak economy throughout the entire year.”

American consumers are tapping the brakes on spending as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases reverberate throughout the economy, according to the CEOs of two of the largest American banks.

After two years of pandemic-fueled, double-digit growth in Bank of America card volume, the rate of growth is slowing.

Still, the downturn isn’t being felt equally across all retail customers and businesses, Wells Fargo’s CEO said.

Both Wells Fargo and Bank of America CEOs expect a recession by Q1 of 2023 and expect some sort of light at the end of the tunnel by Q4.

The implications of a recession end up affecting majority of the U.S. economy as corporations and businesses struggle to yield market capital in slow-growth conditions.

Wages are affected, unemployment skyrockets, and the banks get left with massive debt when Americans can no longer afford to pay their credit card bills or mortgages.

Do you think we will officially enter a recession in the beginning of 2023?

Leave your thoughts below.

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Source(s): FOX Business, CNBC.

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Is Now the Time to Buy or Sell in The Market?

November 10, 2022 / Frank Nez

The markets seem to be nowhere near a bounce as both stocks and crypto freefall; is now the time to buy or sell in the market?

If you’re part of the small percentage that’s in profit, maybe liquidating has come through your mind.

Especially if you’re looking to protect your capital and wait for other opportunities.

But what if your portfolio has suffered significant losses?

Is it best to cut your losses and conserve whatever cash you have left?

This article is going to provide you with perspective on ways to not only protect your cash during this nasty bear market, but also how to identify opportunities to multiply your wealth.

Let’s dive right into it.

Should You Buy or Sell?

Whether you should buy or sell in today’s market conditions will depend on how liquid you are and on your future and current investment plans.

Value investors looking to add stocks to their long-term portfolios could benefit from buying the markets lows, though it’s important to keep in mind that the markets are still susceptible to fall.

Dividend stock investors could also benefit from buying these lows.

Diversified investors who are looking for the next opportunity may want to liquidate positions to have cash ready when the time is right for the next move.

Whether that be waiting for real estate opportunities or other markets to tumble, this will highly depend on an individual’s needs.

With so much uncertainty in the markets at the moment, the best thing investors can do is create a plan to guide their investment goals in the right direction.

Identify what you’re aiming to achieve when investing in the market.

Is it long-term capital gains?

Income?

And decide what it is you need to do now in order to meet your investment needs.

Bitcoin Falls Under $16K, Crypto Down

Crypto News. Bitcoin news. — Crypto News: Bitcoin News.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell under $16K on Wednesday.

Peter Schiff warned investors in a Twitter space call to sell Bitcoin today as the cryptocurrency could be headed towards lower levels.

@PeterSchiff says sell #BTC now
— Frank Nez 🇺🇸 (@FNez_Blogger) November 9, 2022

The economists said he does not own any Bitcoin but urges holders to buy back in after a market collapse occurs in the crypto space.

On the other hand, FTX is causing a ruckus as the token falls more than 90% in the past 7 days with nearly 60% happening in the last 24 hours.

FTX investors include:

BlackRock
Ontario Pension Fund
Sequoia Paradigm
Tiger Global
SoftBank
Circle
Ribbit
Alan Howard
Multicoin
VanEck
Temasek

In recent crypto news, Binance backed out from saving FTX leaving the crypto on the brink of collapse.

FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried said that without more capital, bankruptcy is likely.

Stock Market Rains Blood

Is now the time to buy in the bear market?

Stocks continue to bleed as the Fed struggles to maintain economic structure and institutional investors liquidate the market.

The NASDAQ and SPY have seen improvement in the past month, but economists, CEOs, and media influencers say the market has plenty of room to drop.

Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday, a day before CPI announcements.

Poor consumer reports could cause stocks to fall sharply again.

Traders should trade with caution.

With inflation affecting millions of families and corporations such as Netflix, Facebook (META), Twitter, and Tesla laying off tens of thousands of employees, a recession looms.

Whether you decide to buy or sell in today’s markets will ultimately depend on how liquid you are and whether you’re prepared to face a highly likely recession in the coming months to year.

Creating a plan and identifying what you can and cannot do financially as turmoil hits the economy is your best bet of riding this wave.

Do you plan to buy or sell in the market today?

Leave your thoughts down below.

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