Category: Economic Policy

Fed Is Now Holding A Massive $200 Billion Paper Losses

The Fed is now holding a massive $200 billion in paper losses according to fresh data released on Thursday by the central bank.

This week, the U.S. Federal Reserve reported losses surpassing $200 billion, based on data released on Thursday.

As of Wednesday, the Fed’s earnings remittance to the Treasury Department was recorded at negative $201.2 billion.

This figure represents a paper loss, which central bank officials have indicated does not hinder their ability to implement monetary policy.

However, the number figure is still quite startling.

The negative amount is classified as a ‘deferred asset’ in the Fed’s accounting.

The central bank needs to address this shortfall before it can start returning excess earnings to the Treasury, reports Yahoo Finance.

These losses are primarily a result of the Fed’s high-interest rate policies aimed at reducing inflation.

The Fed compensates banks and money market funds for holding cash at the central bank to maintain desired short-term interest rates.

Two years ago, the Fed began experiencing losses, and in 2023, it has faced unprecedented deficits as the payouts for managing rates have exceeded the income generated from the interest on its bond holdings.

The Fed generates revenue through services provided to the banking system and from interest on its bond portfolio.

By law, it is required to return any profits to the Treasury.

For many years, the central bank has remitted significant amounts; research from the St. Louis Fed indicates that nearly $1 trillion was returned to the Treasury between 2011 and 2021.

The current loss situation is linked to an aggressive rate hike cycle that occurred from March 2022 to July 2023, during which the central bank raised its interest rate target from near-zero to between 5.25% and 5.5%.

In March, the Fed reported a paper loss of $114.3 billion for the previous year.

It paid out $176.8 billion to banks and $104.3 billion through its reverse repo facility, while earning $163.8 billion from interest on its bond holdings.

With the recent half-percentage point rate cut and the potential for further easing, the Fed is expected to experience a slower rate of loss moving forward, as it will incur lower interest expenses to maintain its target rates.

However, before it can return cash to the Treasury, it must first address the deferred asset, a process that could take years to tackle.

Yahoo Finance reports that so far, the Fed has not faced significant political scrutiny over its financial situation, which has surprised some observers, including former central bankers.

But doesn’t seem to be the case all over social media.

Americans are indeed scrutinizing the Fed for its poor financial decisions and management of the U.S. economy.

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Also Read: The US Treasury Direct is Now Freezing Customer Accounts

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US Banks Now Hold 7x More Unrealized Losses Than 2008 Financial Crisis

US banks now hold 7x more unrealized losses than during the 2008 financial crisis, according to fresh data from the FDIC.

The FDIC reported that unrealized losses on securities totaled a whopping $516.5 billion, which was an increase of $38.9 billion from the previous quarter.

This increase was largely due to higher losses on residential mortgage-backed securities, which were affected by rising mortgage rates, per the report.

FDIC-insured institutions reported a net loss of $32.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008 ($12.1 billion during the 1st) — demonstrating just how overleveraged institutions have gotten today.

The banking industry also reported total assets of $24.0 trillion in the first quarter 2024, an increase of $291.2 billion (1.2 percent) from fourth quarter 2023.

The quarterly increase was mainly due to higher balances in trading accounts (up $176.1 billion, or 23.2 percent), cash and balances due from depository institutions (up $79.0 billion, or 2.8 percent), and securities (up $39.9 billion, or 0.7 percent).

Alarmingly, the number of banks on the FDIC’s “Problem Bank List” increased from 52 to 63.

Total assets held by problem banks also rose $15.8 billion to $82.1 billion.

Problem banks represent 1.4 percent of total banks, which is within the normal range for non-crisis periods of 1 to 2 percent of all banks, per the FDIC.

However, the growing number of problem banks and unrealized losses points towards a shaky financial system.

In 2008, the economic consequences forced people to foreclose their homes, jobs were lost, and retirement savings were completely wiped out.

The social implications the collapse created put families on the street and triggered severe community strain.

The crisis affected economies worldwide, leading to global slowdowns and increased economic inequality in many regions.

Industry experts such as Robert Kiyosaki and Grant Cardone have warned that the people are going to experience a system crash unlike anything ever seen before.

But I’m curious to know what you think — leave your thoughts below.

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Also Read: Wells Fargo Is Now Accused of Overcharging Customers in Lawsuit

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BofA Now Predicts A Fed Rate Cut of 125 BPS For 2025

BofA now predicts a fed rate cut of 125 BPS for 2025 and another 75 BPS during the fourth quarter of this year.

In a recent analysis, Bank of America (BofA) examined the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis points (bps) rate cut, characterizing it as a “recalibration” of monetary policy rather than the beginning of a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle.

Despite the Fed’s optimistic outlook, BofA expressed doubts about the effectiveness of these measures, predicting deeper cuts ahead.

The bank forecasts an additional 75 bps reduction in the fourth quarter of this year and 125 bps in 2025.

BofA noted that the Fed’s messaging, particularly in Chair Jerome Powell’s comments and the dot plot, was unexpectedly hawkish despite the recent rate cut.

Powell clarified that the cut was not prompted by labor market concerns but was intended to adjust rates closer to neutral.

The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) maintained a positive outlook, projecting stable growth and a quicker decline in inflation.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement contained significant updates, but they did not align with a dovish interpretation of the rate cut.

BofA highlighted the Fed’s confidence in meeting its inflation targets and remarked that the risks related to inflation and employment were deemed “roughly in balance.”

Notably, the statement included a commitment to “maximum employment,” marking a shift in communication.

Governor Michelle Bowman dissented from the decision, the first such dissent since 2005, indicating some internal disagreement within the Fed.

The SEP released alongside the rate decision was notably optimistic, predicting above-trend growth and a faster path to lower inflation.

While the Fed raised its unemployment forecast to 4.4%, this was viewed as a reflection of current conditions rather than a significant change in outlook.

However, the Fed’s dot plot raised concerns, showing a median forecast of just 100 bps of cuts in 2024, with nearly half the committee anticipating only a 25 bps cut later this year.

BofA suggested this hawkish view could undermine the Fed’s credibility, especially since pre-meeting communications had hinted at a smaller cut.

This divergence may leave the Fed susceptible to market pressures for further reductions.

BofA believes the labor market is likely to remain weak, compelling the Fed to implement a substantial cut in the fourth quarter.

The bank predicts an additional 75 bps cut in 2024 and 125 bps in 2025, leading to a terminal rate of 2.75-3%.

Following the Fed meeting, long-term yields rose slightly, indicating that the central bank’s “recalibration” may not have achieved its intended impact.

BofA concluded that unless economic data consistently shows strength, the Fed may need to abandon its hawkish stance and consider further cuts.

Also Read: The US Treasury Direct is Now Freezing Customer Accounts

Other US Bank News Today

Market News Today - BofA Now Predicts A Fed Rate Cut of 125 BPS For 2025.
Market News Today – BofA Now Predicts A Fed Rate Cut of 125 BPS For 2025.

A massive US bank now gets hit with an AML investigation over flaws related to its internal controls and crimes risk management.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has taken enforcement action against Wells Fargo, raising concerns about the bank’s anti-money laundering (AML) controls and financial crimes risk management.

This development could impact the potential lifting of Wells Fargo’s asset cap and might signal increased scrutiny for other major banks.

On Thursday, the OCC announced it found several deficiencies in Wells Fargo’s AML practices, including issues with suspicious activity reporting, customer due diligence, and customer identification protocols.

The regulatory agreement mandates that Wells enhance its AML and sanctions risk management, secure OCC approval for new offerings, and notify the agency before expanding certain services.

Wells Fargo stated it is already addressing many of the requirements outlined in the agreement and is committed to resolving them with urgency.

Analyst Scott Siefers from Piper Sandler noted that while the formal action was anticipated, it still represents a setback in the bank’s progress to resolve regulatory issues.

Wells Fargo has been under the regulatory microscope since the fallout from its 2016 fake accounts scandal.

Currently, the bank operates under a $1.95 trillion asset cap imposed by the Federal Reserve, one of nine consent orders against it, though six have been lifted since Charlie Scharf became CEO.

The OCC’s 26-page agreement, which did not impose any fines, requires Wells to improve its internal controls and reporting mechanisms related to AML and sanctions practices.

The bank must also enhance its audit program and ensure data integrity for compliance systems.

Jefferies analyst Ken Usdin noted that the broad requirements could impact Wells Fargo’s future growth strategy, but the practical implications remain unclear.

Despite the seriousness of AML issues, Royal Bank of Canada analyst Gerard Cassidy believes this enforcement action will not hinder efforts to lift the asset cap, as it primarily addresses past consumer banking problems.

Wells Fargo has invested significantly in its risk and control operations, hiring around 10,000 employees and increasing spending by $2.5 billion annually since 2018.

This suggests the new regulatory action may not drastically alter overall costs.

Other major banks have also faced scrutiny regarding their AML and sanctions programs.

Bank of America and Citi have highlighted related risks in their recent filings, while JPMorgan Chase continues to disclose ongoing investigations from a 2019 money-laundering incident in India.

Additionally, Canadian lender TD is under investigation for its U.S. AML program related to drug trafficking allegations.

As the financial landscape evolves, the potential for similar enforcement actions against other banks remains uncertain, leaving the industry on alert.

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Pennsylvania Governor Now Signs Order For Housing Affordability

Pennsylvania governor Shapiro now signs an executive order for housing affordability as he addresses the crisis in America.

Governor Josh Shapiro has signed Executive Order 2024-03, initiating the development of Pennsylvania’s first comprehensive Housing Action Plan aimed at addressing the state’s housing shortage, combating homelessness, and expanding affordable housing options.

This initiative is designed to ensure that all Pennsylvanians have access to safe and affordable housing, while also attracting more residents to the Commonwealth.

The Executive Order delegates the responsibility of leading this effort to the Department of Community & Economic Development (DCED), which will collaborate with various stakeholders to assess housing needs and formulate a strategic response.

The Housing Action Plan will serve as a roadmap for expanding affordable housing and providing assistance to those experiencing homelessness.

It emphasizes a coordinated, multi-agency approach that involves state, local, and federal partners, as well as private organizations.

“In order to make Pennsylvania more competitive, we must cut costs, grow our workforce, and attract more people to live and work here,” Governor Shapiro stated.

“A significant challenge we face in drawing new residents is the lack of safe, affordable housing.

That’s why my Administration is focused on practical solutions to expand housing options and reduce costs for Pennsylvanians.”

He further emphasized that the state confronts unique challenges and opportunities in the housing sector, which necessitates a comprehensive and coordinated statewide plan.

“We’re taking action to build more homes in communities that need them most, lower costs so families can remain in their homes, repair aging houses, and ensure our seniors can live with dignity and comfort.

We’re all in this together, and I’m dedicated to making sure everyone has a place they can truly call home.”

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Also Read: A Struggling Gas Station Chain Now Files An Unexpected Bankruptcy

Other Economy News Today

Market News Today - Pennsylvania Governor Now Signs Order For Housing Affordability.
Market News Today – Pennsylvania Governor Now Signs Order For Housing Affordability.

A new report now claims gasoline prices may plunge to $2.50 as soon as late October with some states going lower.

Gasoline prices are known to fluctuate seasonally, typically rising from mid-winter through summer and then declining in the fall.

Currently, prices are on a downward trend, with many American drivers likely to see prices fall below $3 a gallon by the end of October.

In some regions, prices could even dip to $2.50.

The recent decline in prices can be attributed to a significant drop in West Texas Intermediate crude oil, which closed at $65.75 a barrel, its lowest level since August 2021.

This marks a 19.4% decrease in the third quarter and an 8.2% decrease this year, driven by a new oil demand forecast from OPEC that has sparked a market sell-off.

Crude oil comprises about half the cost of gasoline, making these shifts impactful.

According to GasBuddy.com, the national average for gasoline is currently $3.248 per gallon, while the American Automobile Association (AAA) reports it slightly higher at $3.26.

Both figures represent a decline of 42 cents, or 11.4%, since reaching a peak earlier this year.

Notably, 11 states are already enjoying prices below $3, including Alabama, Arkansas, and Texas, with Mississippi currently holding the lowest average at about $2.75.

Market analysts, including Tom Kloza from the Oil Price Information Service, project that gas prices could continue to decline at a rate of about a penny per day over the next month, potentially bringing the national average below $3 by October 3.

Kloza also suggests that $2.50 per gallon is a realistic target by Election Day, November 5.

While some areas might see prices dip below $2, this would likely only occur in states with currently low prices, such as Mississippi, Texas, and Louisiana.

The last instance of U.S. prices falling under $2 was between March 31 and June 5, 2020.

However, several factors could influence future prices, including weather events, geopolitical developments, and OPEC’s control over oil supply, reports The Street.

Tropical Storm Francine is expected to become a hurricane and may disrupt oil production and refining in the Gulf of Mexico, where nearly half of the U.S. refinery capacity is located.

Despite the approaching storm, traders have remained relatively unfazed, with crude prices still below $70 a barrel.

OPEC’s ability to influence oil prices is limited as it faces competition from the U.S., the world’s leading oil producer.

Additionally, softening demand from major economies, such as China, and the growing prevalence of electric vehicles are also contributing to lower gasoline demand.

However, states like Oregon, Idaho, and California may continue to see higher prices due to taxes and regulations.

Overall, residents across the U.S. can expect to benefit from falling gas prices in the near future.

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Also Read: A Struggling Gas Station Chain Now Files An Unexpected Bankruptcy

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JPMorgan CEO Says A $10K Tax Bonus Should Be Given To Americans

JPMorgan CEO says a $10k tax bonus should be given to Americans as ‘relief’, particularly to low and middle income families.

In a recent interview with PBS NewsHour, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed his support for significant changes to the tax code aimed at providing greater relief for working Americans and their families.

Dimon specifically highlighted the need to expand the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) to include all low- and middle-income workers, regardless of whether they have children.

Currently, the EITC offers refundable tax credits to low- and moderate-income workers, with benefits varying based on income, filing status, and the number of qualifying children.

Dimon proposed eliminating the child requirement and increasing the benefit to $10,000, suggesting that this would raise a worker’s income to $24,000.

He argued that many eligible individuals do not take advantage of the EITC due to a lack of awareness.

Dimon stated, “For a single mother with two children earning $14,000 a year, the government currently provides $6,000.

That money would go to families and into their communities, spent in ways they see fit without government interference. I think it would be exceptional.”

The EITC phases out as income rises, with 2023 caps set at approximately $17,640 for single filers without children and $63,398 for married filers with three or more children.

Dimon has previously indicated that funding for these EITC changes could come from increased taxes on the wealthy.

He emphasized that providing additional benefits to low-income earners could significantly impact families and communities by stimulating local economies.

“Jobs create dignity. By incentivizing jobs, you foster better outcomes for families, reduce crime, and encourage workforce participation,” he explained.

Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that 7.1 million Americans were unemployed as of August 2024.

Additionally, a report from Statista shows that 8.3% of Americans were earning under $15,000 per year in 2022, underscoring the need for policy changes to support struggling families.

Dimon’s call for tax reform reflects a growing conversation about how best to support American workers and stimulate economic growth through targeted financial relief.

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Also Read: The US Treasury Direct is Now Freezing Customer Accounts

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Market News Today – JPMorgan CEO Says A $10K Tax Bonus Should Be Given To Americans.

Citibank now fires a whistleblower for ‘underperformance’, after the former employee provided records requested by the OCC.

Citi has filed a countersuit against its former employee, Kathleen Martin, alleging that she was terminated not for refusing to falsify records for the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), as she claimed in her lawsuit from May, but rather for being unable to properly fulfill the duties of her role.

Martin, who was let go from her position as Citi’s interim data transformation chair in September 2023 after nearly two years with the bank, had alleged in her lawsuit that she was fired for not agreeing to Chief Operating Officer Anand Selva’s request to conceal information from the OCC that would make the lender “look bad.”

In a revised lawsuit, Kathleen Martin has accused Citi’s Chief Operating Officer Anand Selva of intentionally deceiving the bank by wanting to misrepresent Citi’s compliance metrics to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).

Martin claims Selva sought to conceal information from the OCC that would have made the bank “look bad.”

However, Citi maintains that Martin’s termination in September 2023 was not due to her refusal to falsify records, but rather because she lacked the necessary “leadership and engagement skills” to effectively execute the role of interim Data Transformation Chair, which she had been appointed to after the previous chair, Rob Casper, departed the company.

Citi asserts that during Martin’s interviews and assessment for the interim role, it was identified that she needed to improve in areas like her “dogmatic nature, lack of innovation and lack of experience driving the execution of complex change across Citi.”

Once Casper left, Citi’s senior leadership, including COO Selva, determined that Martin could not successfully fulfill the demands of the interim chair position.

According to Citi, COO Anand Selva tried to help the plaintiff, Kathleen Martin, improve her performance in the interim Data Transformation Chair role.

Selva allegedly set up one-on-one meetings and working groups to facilitate better collaboration and working relationships with stakeholders.

Selva’s HR team also provided Martin with a senior mentor to support her development.

In May 2023, Citi leadership discussed a plan to improve Martin’s performance.

In July, Selva conveyed Martin’s mid-year review before she raised any concerns about his behavior.

Soon after, Martin contacted HR and expressed fears about her job security.

Citi claims that Martin “felt her position was at risk,” but the bank asserts that internal documents showed she “exceeded expectations” and that CEO Jane Fraser had commended her for her “gravitas” and ability to build “strong relationships” at the bank.

However, Citi says Martin failed to heed the feedback provided, and she was ultimately removed from the Data Transformation Chair role because she lacked the “executive level relationships” and leadership needed to successfully execute the data transformation efforts.

Citi says the data transformation work was too critical for the bank to tolerate Martin’s underperformance.

Citi denies Martin’s claims that she protested the reporting of a key metric accurately or that Selva objected to it.

The bank says Selva and Martin met in September 2023 to discuss reporting certain metrics using red, amber, and green scales.

Also Read: A Massive US Bank is Now Closing Credit Cards

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