More than a year has passed since Bitcoin’s fourth halving, and the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization had a puzzling journey. Over the course of 2024, Bitcoin traded around $80.000-$90.000, making crypto experts agree that it has a poor performance in comparison to previous post-halving ones. Crypto investors were accustomed to Bitcoin to rally strongly for around 12 months after halving, considering that after the 2012 event, BTC registered a 7.000% increase in value, for example. But if we check the Bitcoin price dollar for the last 12 months, we’ll notice that the cycle has fallen short of the trend.
Bitcoin’s fourth halving took place on April 19, 2024, and seasoned investors and crypto newcomers alike experienced a mix of complex emotions surrounding the event because these instances spark speculation, anticipation, and almost always a certain degree of confusion. With more than 12 months of market hindsight and data available at our fingertips, it’s time to evaluate if this halving was really any different from the previous ones.
What happens during Bitcoin halvings?
Crypto connoisseurs are aware that Bitcoin goes through halving events once every four years, cutting the block rewards miners receive by 50%. In 2020 the reward dropped from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, and in 2024 it fell again from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Why is it an important event? It reduces the rate at which new bitcoins enter circulation. The halving of supply growth paired with increasing or consistent demand has traditionally triggered higher prices – through a delay. The halving acts can be compared to monetary policy decisions, coded into Bitcoin’s DNA and each of them test the resilience of traders, miners, but also the broader crypto ecosystem.
At a first glance, how did the 2024 halving compare with the others?
Historically, each Bitcoin halving preceded a massive bull run:
- 2012 halving: BTC surged from ~$12 to over $1,000 within a year
- 2016 halving: BTC rose from ~$650 to ~$20,000 by late 2017
- 2020 halving: BTC jumped from ~$9,000 to ~$64,000 in April 2021
Now, let’s discuss the 2024 halving. BTC registered a rise before and shortly after the event – spiking past $70.000 for the first time in history – but the price wasn’t as explosive as some BTC enthusiasts might have expected. A year later, BTC had days when it surpassed $100.000, which is quite impressive. But is it different?
Did the last halving happen in unique conditions?
The simple answer is, yes. A list of differences shaped the post-2024 halving environment.
Institution adoption was already in full swing
The previous halvings took place in less mature markets, but in 2024 Bitcoin was adopted by major institutions such as Fidelity and BlackRock, and several asset managers had launched spot Bitcoin ETFs. The more significant institutional presence means that much of the expected post-halving enthusiasm might have been priced earlier with more efficient market behavior.
Macroeconomic backdrop was less supportive
In 2020, Bitcoin benefited from pandemic-driven stimulus, near-zero interest rates, and rising inflation fears. But in 2024–2025, central banks had shifted toward a more restrictive monetary policy. Higher interest rates and cautious investor sentiment limited capital flowing into risk assets, even Bitcoin.
Miner behavior changed dramatically
Previous halvings put serious stress on smaller mining operations. This time, many miners were already better prepared, having hedged energy costs or merged into larger pools. The market didn’t see a massive miner capitulation—yet profitability margins remain razor-thin for less efficient players.
How did the market react? Did it follow the typical pattern?
There’s no straight answer to this question. A market evaluation shows that the halving pattern was and it wasn’t the expected one. Quite confusing. Here’s why. The usual pattern involved three stages:
1. Pre-halving run-up – BTC rallies in anticipation.
2. Post-halving cool-down – price consolidates or dips.
3. Delayed surge – major bull run 6-18 months later.
The first two stages took place, but more than a year passed, and crypto specialists believe the market is in the critical period where the delayed surge might not come. The cycle’s muted post-halving price action suggests that either the halving was fully priced in ahead of time or macro factors are overpowering Bitcoin’s traditional supply-demand dynamics.
How did the halving impact the broader crypto market?
It’s essential to note that a great difference from the previous halvings is that Bitcoin dominance remained relatively high throughout 2024 and at the start of 2025. The last events triggered massive altcoin seasons, but this time most altcoins struggled to gain momentum due to tighter investor scrutiny weighing on sentiment and regulatory uncertainty. Some crypto enthusiasts believe that the reason behind the usual price spike in alternative cryptocurrencies is a slower capital rotation from Bitcoin to its counterparts.
Should we believe that this is the new normal for Bitcoin? Is this what will happen after the following halvings?
There’s a great chance for this scenario to become normal. As Bitcoin will grow into a more mature asset class, its price movements could become less volatile and more influenced by traditional market factors. Therefore, the magical effect surrounding the halving events could transform into something else. It could evolve as the entire crypto category. Digital currencies are no longer what they used to, and with improved infrastructure, growing adoption, and institutional frameworks in place, Bitcoin’s reaction to future halvings could be more strategic and less speculative.
In Conclusion
Was this Bitcoin halving really different?
Yes, but also no.
The 2024 halving followed the well-known patterns of expectations and mechanics. However, the macro headwinds, institutional maturity, and miner preparedness were quite different, which created a less sensational and more measured response compared to previous instances.
Still, let’s not forget about the possibility of delayed post-halving rallies. The following 6-12 months might surprise everyone. Because let’s not forget that Bitcoin has the habit of defying timelines – and sometimes it defies even its own.
This halving was different in complexity, pace, and tone, but it remained a test of belief, patience, and understanding.
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