India now leads global crypto adoption for the second year in a row as investors braved the country’s tough regulatory stance and steep taxes.
A recent report from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis highlights India’s significant usage of both centralized exchanges and decentralized finance (DeFi) assets from June 2023 to July 2024, positioning the country among the leaders in cryptocurrency adoption.
Despite a stringent regulatory environment since 2018, the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) issued show-cause notices to nine offshore cryptocurrency exchanges in December 2023 for failing to comply with local regulations.
Eric Jardine, research lead at Chainalysis, noted that India has demonstrated a wide adoption of various crypto assets, indicating that new participants have been engaging with services that remain operational despite existing restrictions.
“Now we’ve started to see some of those restrictions get rolled back, especially with Binance, which is likely to further boost adoption in the country,” Jardine stated.
Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange globally, faced a fine of 188.2 million rupees (approximately $2.25 million) in June, shortly after registering with the FIU to resume its operations in India.
Meanwhile, crypto exchange KuCoin registered with the FIU in March and received a smaller penalty of 3.45 million rupees.
The Chainalysis report also noted that seven of the top 20 countries in its global adoption index are located in Central and South Asia, including Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines.
Notably, Indonesia, which has prohibited the use of cryptocurrencies as a payment method but allows investment in digital assets, recorded $157.1 billion in trading inflows over the past year.
The report further indicated that decentralized transaction volumes for retail-sized transfers (under $10,000) were particularly robust in countries with lower purchasing power per capita, underscoring the growing interest in cryptocurrency across diverse regions.
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Also Read: Analyst Now Says A Massive Bitcoin Short Squeeze is Coming
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An Asset Manager now makes a 2050 Bitcoin prediction of a whopping $2.9m per coin, with lows still looking rather promising.
VanEck has forecasted that by 2050, Bitcoin could potentially become a global reserve currency with a price reaching $2.9 million.
This transition is expected to stem from a decreasing trust in traditional reserve assets and a growing demand for alternatives like Bitcoin.
The firm believes issues related to Bitcoin’s scalability will be addressed through Layer-2 (L2) solutions, enhancing its efficiency.
VanEck predicts that by 2050, Bitcoin could facilitate 10% of international trade and 5% of domestic transactions, with central banks possibly holding 2.5% of their assets in Bitcoin.
Overall, VanEck envisions a significant role for Bitcoin in both international and domestic trade by that year.
According to their estimates, if Bitcoin achieves this scenario, it could drive its price to $2.9 million, elevating its market capitalization to around $61 trillion.
Additionally, VanEck anticipates that the value of Bitcoin’s Layer-2 solutions could reach $7.6 trillion, representing about 12% of Bitcoin’s total value.
It’s important to note that VanEck’s $2.9 million estimate is considered a “base case.”
In a best-case scenario, Bitcoin could soar to $52,386,207, while in a worst-case scenario, the price could drop to $130,314.
A key factor behind VanEck’s optimistic view is Bitcoin’s potential as a reserve asset.
They suggest that shifting trends in the International Monetary System (IMS) could facilitate this transition.
With major economies like the US, EU, UK, and Japan seeing a declining share of global GDP, there may be a growing move toward alternative reserve assets.
This shift is further fueled by diminishing confidence in traditional reserve currencies due to concerns over deficit spending and geopolitical instability.
Consequently, businesses and consumers might increasingly see Bitcoin as a stable and neutral medium of exchange, appreciated for its predictable monetary policy and secure property rights.
VanEck argues that these economic changes could accelerate Bitcoin’s adoption as a global reserve currency, addressing the shortcomings of conventional fiat currencies.
However, not everyone agrees with VanEck’s bullish outlook.
Crypto commentator Kal Benz has labeled the $2.9 million forecast as “bearish.”
Given that Bitcoin currently trades around $59,000, a price of $2.9 million implies an extraordinary growth of 4,815%.
Adjusted for 5% inflation, this projection would be equivalent to $856,000 today, representing a 10.7% return on investment (ROI).
When considering 5% annual monetary debasement, the value shrinks to $267,000, or a 6% ROI.
Furthermore, some market participants are expressing caution, highlighting potential risks.
A notable crypto trader has even predicted that Bitcoin’s value could plummet to as low as $16,000 if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency in November, citing worries about the current administration’s regulatory approach to cryptocurrencies.
Also Read: Here Is What Experts Are Now Saying About Bitcoin’s Plunge
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